From January to October 2022, the domestic production of bearing steel crude steel decreased by 6.20% year-on-year, and the output of bearing steel decreased by 2.88% year-on-year. Looking back at the bearing steel market in November, the improvement in fundamentals continued to fall short of expectations, the demand was still at a low level year-on-year, and the overall market price showed a slight downward trend. Up to now, the average price of domestic bearing round steel 50mm (continuous casting) is 5380 yuan/ton, which is 72 yuan/ton lower than that at the end of October, and the month-on-month decrease is 1.32%. In the recent stage, steel pipe factories and forging factories have continued to increase the pressure to pay back, and tight funds are still the main factor restricting price increases. At present, customers' winter storage willingness has dropped significantly year-on-year, and steel mills are not very enthusiastic about reducing production, and the accumulation of warehouses may gradually accelerate in the later period. Although the cost support of steel is relatively strong, in view of the fact that the demand of the manufacturing industry is still facing certain pressure, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel in December may run weakly and fluctuate, and the overall downward space is limited.
In November, the market price of bearing steel fell weakly, and the demand showed obvious off-season characteristics. At present, traders' winter storage willingness has dropped significantly year-on-year, and the inventory pressure of downstream bearing steel and steel pipe factories has increased, and it will take time to build business confidence. In December, there was a deadline for construction in some areas. Merchants with more resources continued to loosen slightly in order to reduce inventory and withdraw funds, while merchants with less goods maintained consolidation. The early Chinese New Year this year will also lead to the advance of winter storage, and the accumulation node in previous years will also move forward, which still needs to be treated with caution. As the market supply increases near the end of the new year, the pressure of homogenization competition among some steel mills is relatively high, and demand support is limited. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel in December may fluctuate weakly, and the overall decline space is limited.
